Risk Factors and Strategies for Managing Complex Societal Conflicts

• Author: John Davies
• Pages: 16-22

Risk Factors and Strategies

1616

1616

16

2

Risk Factors and Strategies for Managing

Complex Societal Conflicts

J O H N D A V I E S

University of Maryland

Complex Societal Conflicts

Complex societal conflicts have declined

over the last ten years in both frequency and

intensity by more than 50 per cent from their

peak in the immediate aftermath of the Cold

War (Marshall and Gurr 2003). Even so, just

those wars still ongoing (often after decades,

as in Sudan, Afghanistan or Sri Lanka) still

constitute over 90 per cent of all wars and

are responsible for several millions killed —

an estimated 80–90 per cent of them civilians

— with roughly 100,000 more deaths per

year — and over 25 million refugees and

other displaced people. Such conflicts impose

devastating losses in quality of life, stunt

development, destroy the natural and social

environment, entrench dependency and

remove hope, creating a breeding ground for

terrorism and criminal activities which impact

the security of all states and peoples

everywhere.

These conflicts represent an enormous

challenge to our collective capacity for conflict

management and sustained development. Yet

the successes of the last decade offer an

opportunity. To the degree that we can

understand the dynamics motivating these

conflicts and the strategies through which they

can be settled and transformed into sustainable

processes of structural reform and social

development, perhaps we can contribute to

extending the post-Cold War turnaround and

to strengthening international consensus on

democratic norms for managing conflict based

on respect for human needs and social justice.

Almost all recent wars involve complex,

often protracted conflicts with a non-state

community (usually ethnic or nationalist) as at

least one of the parties. Even where two states

are involved, as with India and Pakistan, the

role of non-state communities, such as

Muslims and Hindus in the disputed territory

of Kashmir, is typically pivotal. These

communal identity groups, mobilized around

a shared culture or history, race, religion,

language, clan, political ideology or socio-

economic status, are not clearly recognized

or protected in our state-centric international

system. Where there is a perceived imbalance

in the distribution of economic, political and

social resources (threat to need for effective

participation from social injustice) that coincides

with identity-group boundaries (facilitates

mobilization and raises the need for identity

and respect), there is the potential for violent

and protracted conflict that will further

devastate the communities involved (escalating

the threat to the need for security).

These conflicts may be directed toward

improved participation (access or distributive

justice), or toward greater autonomy or

independence; either way, they cannot

adequately be managed through a system of